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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 16 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 37 for 2 yards (81-D.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model