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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 16 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model