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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model