Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 26 – San Francisco 49ers 23

(2:22) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 35 for 6 yards (28-C.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model