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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Run formation) 26-T.Coleman right guard to ARI 22 for -1 yards (58-J.Hicks, 43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP