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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP