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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 20:20 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CHI
35.8%
LA
64.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Mitch Trubisky (CHI): -0.007 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
LA 23
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CHI

Trey Burton TE Out Calf
Isaiah Irving LB Out Quadricep
Adam Shaheen TE Out Foot
Danny Trevathan LB Out Elbow
David Montgomery RB Questionable Ankle

LA

Rob Havenstein T Out Knee
Darious Williams CB Out Ankle
Brandin Cooks WR Out Concussion
Gerald Everett TE Questionable Wrist
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Knee
Johnny Mundt TE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 7
–
LA 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:38 FG LA (11:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CHI 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 03:33 TD LA (3:33) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – LA 9
  • Q3 07:16 TD CHI (7:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – LA 10
  • Q4 03:35 TD LA (3:35) (No Huddle) 34-M.Brown up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – LA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (11:59) 15-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (9:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Gabriel (20-J.Ramsey).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (1:02) 15-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 91%

    (11:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. Penalty on LA-45-O.Okoronkwo, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CHI 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 60%

    (:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LA 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-48-P.Scales.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-J.Natson to LA 28 for no gain (84-C.Patterson). PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Patterson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 28. Penalty on CHI-35-R.Nall, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 50%

    (1:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:38) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-J.Natson to LA 31 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to LA 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to CHI 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-57-N.Patrick.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete short left to 32-D.Montgomery.