Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LA 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. Penalty on LA-45-O.Okoronkwo, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model