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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to CHI 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP