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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 39

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LA 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-48-P.Scales.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.28 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP