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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP