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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 30

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 15-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model