Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 76

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(:38) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to LA 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-J.Natson to LA 31 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model