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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model