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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 64

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to LA 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model