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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete short left to 32-D.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.95 EP