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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CIN 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 27 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model