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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 16:25 Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CIN
14.5%
OAK
85.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.133 vs Ryan Finley (CIN) -0.747 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

CIN 17
–
OAK 28
Projected margin: OAK by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Knee
Alex Redmond G Out Knee
Drew Sample TE Out Ankle
Bobby Hart T Questionable Shoulder
Geno Atkins DT Questionable Ankle

OAK

Lamarcus Joyner S Out Hamstring
David Sharpe T Out Calf
Trenton Brown T Questionable Knee
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 10
–
OAK 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:09 TD CIN (3:09) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – OAK 0
  • Q2 06:55 TD LV (6:55) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – OAK 6
  • Q2 01:44 TD LV (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – OAK 13
  • Q3 07:28 FG CIN (7:28) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – OAK 14
  • Q4 09:15 FG LV (9:15) 8-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. CIN 10 – OAK 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CIN 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 27 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 58%

    (5:21) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert to LV 18 for 18 yards (21-D.Swearinger).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 31 for 6 yards (31-I.Johnson; 45-A.Ingold).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LV 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:23) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to LV 20, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (:08) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (12:42) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to LV 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 87%

    (7:28) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 47-T.Sieg).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%

    (3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 26 yards to LV 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:26) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:42) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to LV 34 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (11:05) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to CIN 1 for 3 yards (97-G.Atkins; 36-S.Williams). CIN-96-C.Dunlap was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.32 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (9:15) 8-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%

    (5:11) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete deep right to 15-D.Willis (35-C.Riley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.