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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:08) 4-R.Bullock 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model