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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP