Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(5:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 47-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model