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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model