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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 90

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to LV 34 for no gain (40-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model