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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass incomplete deep right to 15-D.Willis (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model