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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 31 for 6 yards (31-I.Johnson; 45-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model