Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LV 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on LV-22-K.Nixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model