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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:43) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, recovered by LAC-28-B.Facyson at LAC 8. 28-B.Facyson to LAC 8 for no gain (12-G.Dieter).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.99 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP