KC @ LAC — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid

Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn

Monday 2019-11-18 · 20:15 Azteca Stadium, Mexico City MX ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

61.2%

LAC

38.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Neutral site — no home-field edge
KC offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.312 EPA/dropback in prior starts
KC defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
LAC on 3 more days rest than KC
Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 24

–

LAC 22

Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Blake Bell TE Out Ankle

Emmanuel Ogbah DE Out Pectoral

Alex Okafor DE Out Ankle

Damien Williams RB Questionable Not Injury Related

Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Thumb

LAC

Sam Tevi T Out Knee

Geremy Davis WR Doubtful Hamstring

Justin Jackson RB Doubtful Calf

Russell Okung T Questionable Groin

Cole Mazza LS Questionable Illness

Roderic Teamer CB Questionable Groin

Drue Tranquill LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 24

–

LAC 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:34 FG LAC (9:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. KC 0 – LAC 3
Q2 08:50 TD KC (8:50) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 3
Q2 05:03 FG LAC (5:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. KC 7 – LAC 6
Q2 01:47 FG KC (1:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – LAC 6
Q2 00:01 FG LAC (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. KC 10 – LAC 9
Q3 09:33 TD KC (9:33) 31-D.Williams right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – LAC 9
Q3 05:01 TD KC (5:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-U.Nwosu]. KC 23 – LAC 9
Q3 01:49 TD LAC (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – LAC 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

(9:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q1 KC 4th & 20 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(7:49) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-50-D.Lee.
Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

(4:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 56%

(11:43) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, recovered by LAC-28-B.Facyson at LAC 8. 28-B.Facyson to LAC 8 for no gain (12-G.Dieter).
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

(5:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

(1:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(8:25) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to KC 46, Center-45-C.Mazza, out of bounds.
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(14:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 18. 20-D.King to LAC 18 for no gain (23-A.Watts).
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(12:26) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to KC 15, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 22 for 7 yards (35-T.Pope).
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

(8:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.
Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(6:18) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 59 yards to KC 27, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 42 for 15 yards (34-D.Watt).
Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 51 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 25%

(4:40) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-D.Williams.
Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 44 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 41%

(2:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.
Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 85 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(1:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry to LAC 25 for 10 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 56-B.Niemann).