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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.82 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model