Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(8:25) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to KC 46, Center-45-C.Mazza, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model