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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP