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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP