Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(1:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry to LAC 25 for 10 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 56-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

What Happened

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.75 EP
47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model