Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(7:49) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-50-D.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.44 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model