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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model