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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model