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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NE
50.0%
PHI
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.423 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.138 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.149 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NE

Nate Ebner S Questionable Ankle
Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Knee
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Ankle
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Ankle
John Simon DE Questionable Elbow

PHI

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
Alshon Jeffery WR Out Ankle
Darren Sproles RB Out Quadricep
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
PHI 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:42 FG PHI (13:42) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. NE 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 12:40 TD PHI (12:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Jones at NE -3. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 08:40 FG NE (8:40) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – PHI 10
  • Q2 03:24 FG NE (3:24) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6 – PHI 10
  • Q2 01:47 FG NE (1:47) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9 – PHI 10
  • Q3 10:55 TD NE (10:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-M.Jenkins]. NE 15 – PHI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (13:42) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to PHI 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:27) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 26 for -1 yards (39-C.James; 36-R.Ford).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:18) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (8:40) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to PHI 48 for 14 yards (36-R.Ford).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (1:47) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NE 17, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to NE 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:26) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (3:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to PHI 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to NE 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-M.Sanu to NE 48 for 10 yards (50-D.Riley).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%

    (:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 7 yards (29-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to NE 2, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-36-R.Ford.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 6 yards (51-J.Bentley). PENALTY on PHI-36-R.Ford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 12.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 13-N.Agholor [54-D.Hightower]. PHI-13-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.