Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 74

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(8:26) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to PHI 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model