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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 45

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to PHI 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP