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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 47

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model