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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 1-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP