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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 59

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-B.Scott to PHI 12 for 7 yards (29-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model