Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 66

New England Patriots 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to PHI 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.29 EP
40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -2.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model