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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model