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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NO
45.3%
TB
54.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.166 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NO

Deonte Harty WR Out Hamstring
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Hamstring
Andrus Peat G Out Forearm

TB

Carl Nassib DE Out Groin
Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring
M.J. Stewart CB Out Knee
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
TB 17

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 FG NO (8:49) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 00:54 FG NO (:54) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 00:03 TD NO (:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – TB 0
  • Q2 05:19 TD NO (5:19) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – TB 0
  • Q2 02:47 TD TB (2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 25-P.Barber for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – TB 6
  • Q3 11:13 FG TB (11:13) 9-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NO 20 – TB 10
  • Q3 05:32 TD NO (5:32) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 19-T.Ginn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – TB 10
  • Q3 01:31 TD TB (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – TB 16
  • Q4 05:19 TD NO (5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – TB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (8:49) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:01) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara to NO 24 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:54) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:07) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to NO 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara to NO 49 for 27 yards (17-J.Watson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 36, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-T.Logan ran ob at TB 43 for 7 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%

    (11:13) 9-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:56) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara ran ob at NO 18 for 5 yards (22-T.Logan). PENALTY on TB-22-T.Logan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 18.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (9:07) 64-W.Clapp and 60-P.Omameh reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to TB 45 for 2 yards (50-V.Vea).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 59%

    (5:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-T.Logan.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.