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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model