Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara ran ob at NO 18 for 5 yards (22-T.Logan). PENALTY on TB-22-T.Logan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model