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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-T.Logan.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP