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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 18% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model