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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
Sunday 2019-11-17 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NYJ
41.6%
WAS
58.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.236 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.434 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.053 EPA/dropback
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than NYJ
  • WAS defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYJ

Matthias Farley S Out Quadricep
Ryan Kalil C Out Knee
C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Paul Worrilow LB Out Quadricep
Darryl Roberts CB Doubtful Calf
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle
Le'Veon Bell RB Questionable Illness
Brandon Copeland LB Questionable Hip
Neville Hewitt LB Questionable Neck
Alex Lewis G Questionable Elbow
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Neck
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Knee

WAS

Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Tim Settle DT Out Hamstring
Chris Thompson RB Out Toe
Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Deshazor Everett S Questionable Ankle
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 34
–
WAS 17

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:58 TD NYJ (11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 87-D.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 14:06 TD NYJ (14:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-Ro.Anderson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – WAS 0
  • Q2 09:09 FG WAS (9:09) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYJ 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 00:41 TD NYJ (:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-R.Griffin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – WAS 3
  • Q4 13:18 TD NYJ (13:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 82-J.Crowder for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – WAS 3
  • Q4 12:20 TD NYJ (12:20) 26-L.Bell left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 33 – WAS 3
  • Q4 10:11 TD WAS (10:11) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 29-D.Guice for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 34 – WAS 9
  • Q4 01:15 TD WAS (1:15) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 87-J.Sprinkle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 34 – WAS 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:20) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYJ 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 25 for 16 yards (30-T.Apke; 45-M.Burton).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%

    (6:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:36) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to NYJ 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 38 for 12 yards (30-T.Apke; 45-M.Burton).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 19 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:54) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYJ 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 45 for 15 yards (45-M.Burton).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 83%

    (9:09) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (6:41) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (2:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to WAS 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 25 for 9 yards (34-B.Poole).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:31) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete short right to 15-S.Sims (48-J.Jenkins).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 43%

    (5:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 19 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (2:51) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYJ 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 24%

    (1:21) 26-L.Bell left end to WAS 48 for 3 yards (93-Jon.Allen).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%

    (4:37) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYJ 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-T.Quinn to NYJ 49 for no gain (37-M.Canady).